Posted 16:16 by pressnews

Protecting Turkey's airspace from Iran
by Ali M. Köknar
Ali M. Köknar is a private security consultant in Washington, DC, specializing in weapons proliferation

Due to political, economic and technological reasons, Turkey may be able to better boost her air defense forces by cooperating with her two close allies, United States and Israel. In the past, Israeli military experts have said that ballistic missile defense (BMD) was among the topics of cooperation under discussion by Turkish and Israeli authorities.
Israel has been providing tactical intelligence to Turkey for the last few years, obtained, among other means, via her Ofek reconnaissance satellite.

Washington - 22 May 2006 / Until a few years ago, Turkish military strategists believed that the ballistic missiles deployed to their east and south lacked sophisticated targeting systems needed to strike military targets inside Turkey successfully, and that major Turkish urban centers remained outside their reach. However, developments pursuant to the Iran-Iraq war caused Turkey to change her perception about these missiles. In early 1999, a NATO assessment highlighted the ballistic missile threat Turkey faced from Iran and Syria. Noting that Turkey’s largest three cities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, were now within range of ballistic missiles of her neighbors, the NATO document recommended development of military and civilian response structures against these threats.

Iran is on the verge of completing her medium-range ballistic missile, Shahab-3, capable of striking Israel, Turkey and American troops in the Persian Gulf with a 700 kilogram warhead. Iran is also continuing the development of 1,000 kilogram payload Shahab-4 missile which will bring virtually all of Europe, not to mention all of Turkey and Israel, within its range. US and Israeli officials believe Iran seeks to acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons and that she stockpiles chemical weapons (CW).

Syria, to south of Turkey, deploys Scud-Bs and Cs, along with 60 mobile launchers, SS-N-3b Sepal cruise missiles and is reportedly developing indigenous production capability for accurate M-9 and 11 missiles. A 1998 American report indicated that Syria, which is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, was working to load nerve agents onto Scud warheads and had chemical gravity bombs for delivery by its Mig29 and Su30 aircraft. During a 1998 crisis with Turkey Syria redeployed 36 Scud C Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) from its border with Israel to a position opposite the Turkish border. In response to the Syrian missile movements, Turkey deployed her own MGM-140 ATACMS tactical missiles opposite Syria and planned to use her F-16 aircraft in counterforce missions against the Syrian missile force.

In order to counter these threats better, the Turkish Army (Land Forces-TUA) created an Air Defense Corps as a new discipline within its organization and the Turkish Air Force (TUAF) announced the opening of a new Air Defense School. Air defense hardware owned both by TUAF and TUA is also being augmented by new sensors and weapons systems.

TUAF does not posses a High Altitude Surface to Air Missile (HSAM) system for use against ballistic missile attacks.
When a retaliatory Iraqi Scud attack seemed likely against Incirlik US Air Force Base and the neighboring Turkish cities in January 1999 following Operation Desert Fox, Turkish government requested the US to deploy Raytheon MIM-104 Patriot SAMs in southeast Turkey. The deployment, initially expected to last between 30 and 60 days, actually ended almost 7 months later. Strangely enough, when Turkey had displayed interest in actually acquiring the earlier generation PAC-1 and PAC-2 Patriot systems in 1997, the US administration declined to allow it, which led to subsequent Turkish negotiations with Israel in order to participate in the Arrow program.

Due to political, economic and technological reasons, Turkey may be able to better boost her air defense forces by cooperating with her two close allies, United States and Israel, against which some of the threats mentioned above are also targeted. In the past, Israeli military experts have said that ballistic missile defense (BMD) was among the topics of cooperation under discussion by Turkish and Israeli authorities.

Israel has been providing tactical intelligence to Turkey for the last few years, obtained, among other means, via her Ofek reconnaissance satellite. In a 1997 visit to Turkey, Israeli Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Amnon Lipkin Shahak had paved the way for the two countries to set up a satellite communication system. During the 1998 missile crisis with Syria, Israel provided Turkey information on the repositioning of Syria’s Scuds based on Ofek’s imagery of the area. According to the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz, during Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s last visit to Turkey in October 1999, Israelis also offered Turkey the chance to participate in a “Space Program Cooperation”. This cooperation could help Turkey survey her neighbors’ ballistic missile and WMD programs. Turkey is also interested in Israel’s Homa (Wall) long range radar program which would help improve her early warning system.

Turkey has repeatedly expressed a desire to participate in the joint US-Israeli Arrow program, particularly after her Patriot request was turned down by the US. However, IAI officials stress that the Arrow cannot be sold, or even presented, to third countries without US permission.

Turkey is also following with interest the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) system currently under development jointly by American TRW and Israel, to shoot down short range rocket salvos. Should THEL become commercially available, restrictions on its transfer to Turkey, similar to the restrictions on Arrow, can be expected.

As Turkish officials embark on various projects mentioned above to provide a more reliable air defense umbrella over the country, experts such as former Turkish Ambassador to Washington, Dr. Sükrü Elekdag suggest that Turkey should also explore the deterrence option as an element of her air defense doctrine. Called “active deterrence” by Ambassador Elekdag, this would make it necessary for Turkey to obtain similar ballistic missiles her potential aggressors possess, while abiding by the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) agreement she signed. Earlier in 1999 Turkish Chief of Staff General Hüseyin Kivrikoglu noted that the acquisition of tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) with a range of approximately 150 kilometers was considered a part of Turkish military’s ongoing modernization efforts.

Israel's arsenal holds a wide variety of long range tactical ballistic missiles. Those include the Jericho series short and medium range ballistic missiles and IMI’s 500 kilometer range Delilah cruise missile/anti-radiation attack drone project, in which, according to Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum, Turkey has shown interest. In the meantime, Turkey’s Mikes-Roketsan consortium already cooperates with Israeli Rafael in a $150 Million project to jointly produce AGM-142 Popeye-2 air launched stand-off missiles as deliveries of one hundred Popeye-1 missiles to TUAF by Rafael continue.

While early warning, state-of-the-art SAMs and TBMs are options considered by Turkey to better protect her airspace, military and strategic assets and civilian population, the fail-safe way of doing away with the ballistic missile threat is to terminate it at its source, especially when the ballistic missiles are carrying NBC payloads. As Rep. Weldon puts it “the devastating effects of any biological, chemical or nuclear warhead (must) fall upon those who launch the missiles”. Having benefited from the lessons learned by NATO allies United States and United Kingdom in the “Great Scud Hunt” of the Gulf War, experienced Turkish fighter pilots continue to train, often alongside their Israeli counterparts, for this most vital mission should it become necessary to protect the Turkish airspace pro-actively in future.
"Protecting Turkey's airspace from Iran" by Ali M. Köknar Washington - 22 May 2006

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